The Unfolding Reality of Gustavo Petro's ELN Promise: A Deep Dive

As Colombia navigates the complexities of its ongoing peace process, a spotlight is intensifying on President Gustavo Petro's earlier assertions regarding the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN). Petro, during his presidential campaign, confidently stated that if elected, the ELN would demobilize within three months. However, as his administration progresses, the reality on the ground paints a different picture, one where the ELN is not only active but seemingly expanding its influence across the nation.

The Genesis of a Promise

In a candid interview with Vicky Dávila, then director of Semana magazine, Petro addressed the sensitive issue of the ELN's leadership and potential extradition requests. According to Moreno (2024), «Petro's response transitioned from cautious to bold, suggesting that within three months of his presidency, the ELN would come to an end through a peace agreement». This statement, as reported by Pulzo, quickly morphed into a perceived promise, significantly influencing public expectations, especially in regions heavily impacted by the ELN's operations (Moreno, 2024).

The Weight of Words: Campaign Promises vs. Reality

Petro's background as a former member of the M-19 guerrilla group added weight to his claims, fostering hope that his ideological alignment could facilitate smoother dialogues with the ELN. The prospect of a left-leaning leader achieving peace through democratic means further bolstered the attractiveness of his promise, resonating with a populace yearning for an end to decades of violence.

However, this pledge is now casting a long shadow over his presidency. The ELN's continued activities and expansion are a stark contrast to Petro's initial timeline. As Moreno (2024) notes, «The president is now visibly uncomfortable when reminded of his campaign assertion, particularly as the ELN engages in terrorist acts and distances itself from peace». This dissonance is further amplified by Petro's earlier declaration: 'My government is [will be] to make peace. Period. If we don't make peace, let them impeach me. What is more, I resign myself because I am useless'.»

Eliécer Herlinto Chamorro Acosta's Perspective

Adding complexity to the narrative, Eliécer Herlinto Chamorro Acosta, also known as 'Antonio García,' the head of the ELN, offered a contrasting view. When questioned about Petro's three-month demobilization claim, Acosta stated, «I cannot think of something that did not pass through my imagination. The least I can say is that Petro was unaware or misinformed. I do not consider it naivety. Perhaps, he intended to manipulate reality through media management» (Pulzo, 2024).

Expansion and Binational Implications

Reports indicate a concerning trend: the ELN is not diminishing but expanding. This growth extends beyond Colombia's borders, with Venezuela serving as a strategic rearguard. According to Pulzo (2024), the ELN's binational presence poses a significant risk to Colombia's sovereignty. This concern was echoed by Petro himself in January, who acknowledged that the ELN's actions endanger national sovereignty and that their power is not solely derived from internal conflicts.

Security Report: Confrontation with Armed Groups

According to the security report presented by Federación Nacional de Departamentos (FND), Colombia registers 12 or more fronts of confrontation with armed groups (Pulzo, 2024).

  • Norte de Santander
  • Sur de Bolívar
  • Bajo Cauca Antioqueño
  • Arauca
  • Vichada-Guainía
  • Guaviare-Meta
  • Pacífico chocoano
  • Norte del Cauca
  • Nariño
  • Putumayo-Caquetá
  • La Guajira
  • Valle del Cauca

The Current State of Affairs

Despite Petro's efforts, including a six-month ceasefire and dialogues with factions of the ELN, lasting peace remains elusive. A report by Human Rights Watch (HRW) further underscores the deterioration of security since Petro's presidency began, noting significant expansion of armed groups, including a 23% growth for the ELN, with presence in 232 municipalities (Pulzo, 2024). The ‘Clan del Golfo’ had a growth of 55 % (presence in 392 municipalities) and dissidents of FARC, of the 30 % (presence in 299 municipalities), in comparison with 2022.

The Road Ahead

President Petro's ambitious goal of «total peace» is now inextricably linked to his earlier assertions regarding the ELN. The coming months will be critical in determining whether his administration can bridge the gap between promise and reality. Whether this can be achieved remains to be seen, but the challenges are undeniable, and the stakes are high for a nation seeking lasting peace.

References

Moreno, F. (2024, Mayo 22). Hace cuatro años, Petro dijo que, si ganaba presidencia, el Eln se acabaría en tres meses. Pulzo. Retrieved from https://www.pulzo.com/nacion/gustavo-petro-dijo-hace-cuatro-anos-que-si-era-presidente-eln-ababa-PP4380052