The specter of prioritizing defense spending over social welfare is hovering over Europe, sparking heated debates about the continent's future. As nations grapple with increasing global instability, the question arises: can Europe simultaneously bolster its defenses and maintain its commitment to social programs?

The False Dilemma: Guns vs. Butter?

The simplistic dichotomy of «guns versus butter,» popularized by economist Paul Samuelson, is resurfacing in discussions about defense spending. This model suggests that increasing investment in one area necessitates sacrifices in another. However, as Jorge Galindo (2025) points out in El País, this dilemma may be a false one in the current context.

«Es necesario proteger un sistema social y político que ha generado prosperidad y libertades, y que ahora se ve amenazado por potencias con valores crecientemente antagónicos» (J. Galindo, 2025).

Europe is facing a complex reality where protecting its social model may depend on strengthening its defense capabilities. The traditional reliance on the United States for security is waning, prompting a reevaluation of European defense strategies.

Investing in Defense as an Economic Catalyst

Instead of viewing defense spending as a drain on resources, some argue that it can stimulate economic growth. Strategic investments in defense technology and infrastructure could create jobs, foster innovation, and enhance technological sovereignty. This approach aligns with the European Union's push for greater autonomy and resilience in a rapidly changing world.

The Role of Innovation and Technology

A modern defense industry, focused on cutting-edge technologies, can generate positive spillover effects across various sectors. This includes advancements in areas like artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and advanced materials. These innovations can benefit both military and civilian applications, driving economic growth and improving overall competitiveness.

  • Artificial Intelligence: developing AI for defense can also lead to advancements in healthcare, transportation, and manufacturing.
  • Cybersecurity: investing in cybersecurity for defense strengthens the protection of critical infrastructure and sensitive data across all sectors.
  • Advanced Materials: research into advanced materials for military applications can result in innovations in construction, aerospace, and automotive industries.

The European Context: A Call for Strategic Autonomy

The changing geopolitical landscape is compelling Europe to reassess its role in global security. Events in recent years have highlighted the need for greater strategic autonomy, reducing reliance on external actors for defense. This requires a significant increase in defense spending, but also a more coordinated and efficient approach to defense procurement and development.

The Need for a Coordinated Approach

Fragmented defense spending and duplication of efforts have long plagued the European defense landscape. A more integrated approach, with greater cooperation among member states, could enhance efficiency and maximize the impact of investments. This includes joint research and development projects, as well as coordinated procurement policies.

The path forward involves a carefully calibrated approach that balances the need for increased defense spending with the imperative of maintaining social welfare. This requires innovative thinking, strategic investments, and a commitment to European unity and resilience.

Considering a Temporary Increase in Defense Spending

Galindo (2025) suggests considering the increased investment in the coming years as a temporary, exceptional period. Mechanisms could be put in place to ensure that the build-up reaches a pre-agreed endpoint, potentially easing concerns. This temporal element adds another layer of complexity to the initial model: in the long run, choosing «guns» now will allow a return to «butter» later.

«Incorporar la consideración temporal añade una última capa de complejidad al modelo de partida: a largo plazo, elegir ahora cañones nos permitirá volver a la mantequilla» (J. Galindo, 2025).

Ultimately, Europe's ability to navigate this challenge will depend on its capacity to adapt, innovate, and work together. The future of the continent hinges on striking the right balance between security and prosperity.

Reference

Galindo, J. (2025, March 14). Cañones o mantequilla: la falsa dicotomía de la defensa. El País. https://elpais.com/espana/2025-03-14/canones-o-mantequilla-la-falsa-dicotomia-de-la-defensa.html